Probabilistic Structural Uncertainty Modeling by Marc Mignole, April 2026

Probabilistic Structural Uncertainty Modeling

Marc Mignole

Professor, Arizona State University

April, 2026

Abstract:

The talk will first discuss what uncertainty is, differences between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, and why they should be modeled/accounted for. Probabilistic concepts used to model uncertainty will then be reviewed, from introducing well chosen random variables in the problem to random fields and random matrices. Mathematical concepts and results such as Karhunen-Loeve expansion, polynomial chaos, and maximum entropy will be explained and justified. Applications of these concepts will be presented.

Biography:

Marc Mignolet received his Engineer's degree from the University of Liege, Belgium, in 1983 and his Ph.D. from Rice University in 1987. Since then he has been at Arizona State University where he is Professor in the SEMTE Faculties of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. His research area is mostly in the vibrations of deterministic and uncertain structures. His group has been especially active in the formulation, validation, and implementation of reduced order models for structures in the nonlinear geometric regime with or without heating with focus on coupled aero-thermal-structural problems related to hypersonic vehicles. He is a Fellow of ASME, of the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Institute, Associate Fellow AIAA and the 2025 recipient of the ASCE Robert Scanlan Medal.